Mastering Day Trading in Unstable Markets
Intro
In the world of finance, day trading in volatile markets often feels like riding a roller coaster in the dark. You can hear the twists and turns, but visibility is limited. Such conditions may lead to significant gains or losses, and navigating this landscape requires more than just luck. Investors must arm themselves with knowledge, strategy, and the right mindset.
Market volatility can be likened to the unpredictable wind; it can shift direction suddenly and alter a traderās course in a heartbeat. To thrive, you need resilience, adaptability, and a solid foundation of trading principles. In this guide, we delve into the essential underpinnings of day trading within these turbulent markets. Likewise, we will outline crucial strategies, touch on risk management techniques, and discuss psychological factors that often dictate trading success.
As you embark on this journey, keep in mind that the goal isnāt merely to survive the wild swings but to become adept in your approach, transforming volatility from a foe into a reliable ally.
Investment Dictionaries
Within the realm of day trading, understanding specific terms and concepts is essential. This section will provide clarity on key investment lexicons and common strategies utilized in day trading.
Key Terms and Definitions
Grasping the language of trading can seem like learning a foreign dialect. Here are some fundamental terms:
- Volatility: A statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for a given security, representing how much the price of a security can fluctuate.
- Liquidity: Refers to how easily assets can be converted into cash without significantly affecting their price. High liquidity is crucial for day traders to enter or exit positions swiftly.
- Short Selling: Selling an asset that one does not own, aiming to benefit from a decline in its price.
- Margin Trading: Borrowing funds from a broker to trade financial assets, increasing the potential for profit but also amplifying risks.
Understanding these terms is just scratching the surface, yet they lay a sturdy foundation for successful trading.
Common Investment Strategies
When navigating volatile markets, having a handful of strategies at your disposal can keep you one step ahead. Here are some common approaches:
- Momentum Trading: This strategy involves buying stocks that are trending upward and selling those that are declining. Traders capitalize on the momentum of price movements.
- Scalping: A short-term trading strategy where traders aim to profit from minor price changes, often holding positions for mere minutes.
- Swing Trading: This method focuses on taking advantage of price swings over several days or weeks, allowing for a more relaxed pace compared to day trading.
Utilizing the right blend of these strategies can enhance your adaptability in turbulent times.
Expert Advice
As volatility becomes the norm, expert insight can guide both novice and seasoned investors. Letās take a closer look at practical tips adapted for different experience levels.
Practical Tips for Novice Investors
- Start Small: Avoid throwing all your capital into the market at once. Instead, begin with smaller trades to build confidence and experience.
- Develop a Trading Plan: Have a clear plan outlining your entry and exit points, stop-loss levels, and profit targets.
- Continuous Learning: Stay informed by reading up on market trends, news, and analysis. Utilize online platforms like Reddit or financial forums.
Advanced Techniques for Experienced Investors
- Algorithmic Trading: Consider using complex algorithms to automate trades based on market signals. This can reduce emotional decision-making.
- Utilizing Options for Hedging: Experienced traders might use options to protect their portfolios against volatile swings, adding a layer of risk management.
- Diversification in Assets: Spread investments across various sectors to mitigate risk associated with market volatility.
These strategies not only tailor your approach depending on experience but also prepare you for the unexpected turns in volatile trading scenarios.
"The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient." - Warren Buffett
Moving forward, itāll be crucial to synthesize the information presented and continuously adapt your strategies to fit the cataclysmic nature of day trading in volatile markets.
Understanding Volatility
To navigate the choppy waters of day trading, grasping the concept of volatility is crucial. Volatility is not just a buzzword; it represents the risk and opportunity landscape that traders face each day. In volatile markets, prices can swing like a pendulum, offering both potential gains and serious pitfalls. Recognizing how volatility behaves helps traders strategize effectively and minimize potential losses.
Defining Market Volatility
Market volatility refers to the degree of price fluctuation in a specific security or market index over a given time frame. Simply put, if a stock's price is jumping up and down frequently, it's viewed as highly volatile. Conversely, stocks showing steady behavior are termed low volatility. A clear measure of this is the standard deviation, which quantifies how much prices deviate from the mean. The importance of defining this term lies in how it helps traders assess the risk associated with certain stocks and, consequently, their trading strategies. Understanding this can lead to more informed decisions and potentially profitable trades.
Factors Influencing Volatility
Several factors can cause fluctuations in market volatility. Economic indicators, company earnings reports, and geopolitical events all play significant roles. For instance, unexpected news about unemployment rates can cause investors to react swiftly, leading to price swings. Public sentiment and overall market trends can also inject volatility. For day traders, keeping a finger on the pulse of these issues is vital, as they can dictate the ebb and flow of stock prices on any given day.
Volatility Metrics: An Overview
Understanding how to measure volatility can empower traders in their decision-making. A few critical metrics are particularly influential:
Standard Deviation
The standard deviation is a statistical measure that captures the amount of variation or dispersion in a set of values. In the trading realm, a higher standard deviation indicates greater price volatility. Itās a widely regarded metric for gauging the risk level associated with a particular stock. Its key characteristic is that it provides a clear numerical figure that traders can rely upon. By assessing standard deviation, traders can differentiate between stable and volatile stocks.
However, one must be cautious with standard deviation. While it highlights overall volatility, it does not account for market directionality, which may not always paint a full picture. Consequently, relying solely on this metric without cross-referencing other volatility indicators could lead to misinformed trading decisions.
Beta Coefficient
The beta coefficient measures a stockās volatility relative to the overall market. A beta greater than one implies that a stock is more volatile than the market, while a beta less than one indicates itās less unstable. This makes beta a fantastic tool for day traders determining which stocks might amplify their market movements.
Its unique feature is its ability to compare potential risk by placing a stock in context with the broader market trends. However, traders should note that while beta effectively tells you how a stock has behaved historically, it does not guarantee future performance. Ignoring current market conditions while relying on this past behavior could lead one astray.
Volume Metrics
Volume metrics reflect the number of shares traded over a specific period, indicating the stockās activity level. When trading volume is high, it typically signals increased interest and potential volatility. Moreover, volume can confirm price trends; for instance, if a stock is moving up in price with rising volume, it might suggest a strong trend worth following.
A key characteristic of volume metrics lies in their capacity to help traders gauge market strength. During day trading, low volume combined with volatility can imply an unreliable market where price swings might not hold. On the flip side, high volume usually accompanies more reliable price movements; thus, it's critical for making judicious decisions on when and where to place trades.
Day Trading Fundamentals
Understanding the fundamentals of day trading is crucial for anyone looking to engage in this high-energy environment. Essentially, day trading refers to the practice of buying and selling financial instruments within the same trading day, aiming to capitalize on short-term price fluctuations. Grasping the core concepts not only aids traders in making informed decisions but also fosters a disciplined approach toward their financial strategies. In volatile markets, these fundamentals become even more pivotal as price swings can occur rapidly, amplifying both risk and potential reward.
What is Day Trading?
At its heart, day trading is the practice of executing trades on stocks, options, or currencies within the limits of a single day. Unlike traditional investing, where positions may be held for weeks or even months, day traders must use swift decision-making skills. The essence lies in leveraging minor price movements. For example, if you buy shares of Tesla in the morning and sell by midday as prices rise, you can pocket the difference. However, this speed of engagement necessitates a comprehensive understanding of market trends and technical analysis, allowing traders to discern when to enter and exit positions quickly.
Key Characteristics of Day Traders
The day trader's mind is often a whirlwind of analysis and strategy. Here are some distinct characteristics that define effective day trading:
- Keen Market Awareness: Successful day traders stay alert to market news, trends, and events that might influence price movements.
- Adaptability: Trading tactics must pivot as market conditions shift; one second, a stock could be bullish, and the next it could plummet.
- Risk Tolerance: Day traders must have a strong understanding of their own risk profile. Knowing how much risk to take on while trading is paramount.
- Technical Skills: Solid proficiency with charts and trading software plays a vital role in analyzing market data.
Essential Tools for Day Trading
Equipped with the right tools, day traders can refine their strategies with precision. Here's a look at the essential tools that support their trading endeavors:
Trading Platforms
A trading platform is the gateway to executing trades. Popular options include TD Ameritrade and E*TRADE which facilitate swift transactions. One key characteristic of these platforms is their user-friendly interface, helping traders easily navigate complex tools. Additionally, many platforms offer customizable layouts, enabling traders to personalize their workspace based on their trading style. However, traders must be mindful that not all platforms have the same fees or functionalities. Some may charge for trades, which can cut into profits if not considered properly.
Charting Software
Charting software acts as a traderās crystal ball, presenting vital data in real-time. Tools like TradingView and MetaTrader 4 help in visualizing price action, trends, and patterns. The beauty of charting software lies in their ability to apply technical indicators, such as moving averages or Bollinger Bands, which provide clarity when making buy or sell decisions. But, while they can be tremendously helpful, there's a learning curve that often leaves less experienced traders feeling overwhelmed.
Market News Feeds
Timely information can make the difference between a win and a loss in day trading. Reliable market news feeds, such as those provided by Bloomberg or Reuters, deliver up-to-the-minute headlines that can influence market sentiment. A key feature of these news feeds is their real-time updates, which keep traders informed of critical economic news, earnings announcements, or geopolitical events. However, too much information can lead to analysis paralysis, where one feels overwhelmed by data and struggles to make timely decisions.
By grasping the fundamental aspects of day trading, traders can equip themselves to tackle volatile markets more effectively. Each elementābe it the intricacies of executing trades, the necessary technical skills, or the right toolsāplays a vital role in shaping a trader's journey.
Strategizing for Volatile Stocks
In the competitive realm of day trading, forming a strategy tailored specifically for volatile stocks becomes not just advantageous, but essential. Volatile markets can turn on a dime, leading to rapid price fluctuations that can either be capitalized on or can result in significant losses. A well-laid strategy enables traders to not only navigate these turbulent waters but leverage the inherent unpredictability of the markets.
By developing a thorough approach, traders can make informed decisions, minimize potential losses, and harness opportunities that volatility presents. So, what does it take to draft a solid game plan?
Creating a Trading Plan
A trading plan is the blueprint for your trading strategy. It details not just when to buy or sell, but under what conditions and how much capital to risk. The essence of a trading plan is rooted in logic and discipline, which are the bedrock of successful trading. Here are key facets to consider:
Setting Goals
Setting tangible and realistic goals helps clarify what a trader aims to achieve. Whether itās a specific percentage return on investment or reaching a certain portfolio value, having a defined target can steer your actions.
- It provides a clear vision of success.
- Focuses trading strategies on achieving particular outcomes.
- Helps in maintaining discipline in the face of market noise.
However, itās crucial to not set the bar too high initially. Unrealistic expectations can lead to frustration and poor decision-making. It's often more effective to aim for incremental gains over time rather than attempting to strike it rich overnight.
Identifying Risk Tolerance
Risk tolerance varies widely among traders and plays a pivotal role. Understanding how much risk one is willing to absorb can shape the overall strategy.
- Those with a high risk tolerance may dive into aggressive trades.
- Traders with a lower risk tolerance could prioritize capital preservation.
This characteristic helps create a cushion against significant losses, which is vital during volatile swings. Itās about knowing your threshold and being comfortable with your comfort zone.
Establishing Entry and Exit Criteria
Defining when to enter and exit trades is paramount. Criteria may include certain price levels, technical indicators, or news triggers that signal action.
- Clear entry and exit points lead to more strategic trades rather than emotional decisions.
- They allow the trader to plan ahead and stick to their strategy despite market stresses.
However, one should be wary of rigid criteria as they might miss opportunities. A balance between strict rules and flexible execution can often yield the best results.
Technical Analysis Techniques
Once a trading plan is in place, honing in on technical analysis can provide the insights needed to make those entry and exit decisions with confidence.
Support and Resistance Levels
Support and resistance levels refer to price points that historically cause a stock's price to reverse direction. Identifying these levels allows traders to make educated guesses about future price movements.
- They are invaluable for setting realistic targets based on historical behavior.
- Understanding where a stock might bounce back or break down can enhance decision-making.
Nonetheless, the risk lies in treating these levels with too much certainty; nothing is guaranteed in the market.
Moving Averages
Moving averages serve as a smoothing tool, filtering out erratic price movements to reveal underlying trends. Traders often use them to identify the general direction of a stockās price.
- This technique helps traders stay aligned with the prevailing market trends, whether bullish or bear.
- A common approach is to look for crossoversāwhere short-term averages cross long-term averagesāwhich might signify potential buy or sell signals.
However, itās worth noting that moving averages can lag behind current prices, so using them in tandem with other indicators can be beneficial.
Indicators such as RSI and MACD
Indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) provide insight into momentum and potential reversals.
- RSI gauges the speed and change of price movements, helping to identify overbought or oversold conditions.
- MACD focuses on relationship changes between two moving averages, often pinpointing shifts in momentum.
While these indicators can provide valuable signals, traders must remember their limitations and avoid relying solely on them for trade decisions.
The Role of Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental analysis, while often overshadowed by technical metrics in day trading, holds its own. Evaluating a company's financial health or the broader economic environment offers context that technical charts cannot.
By keeping an eye on key economic reports, earnings releases, or geopolitical developments, traders can cultivate a more holistic view of market conditions. This comprehensive perspective aids in making informed trading decisions, ensuring that strategy is backed up by solid reasoning rather than mere speculation.
Risk Management in Day Trading
In the fast-paced world of day trading, especially when market conditions are rocky, risk management becomes a trader's best friend. Understanding how to appropriately manage risk not only safeguards capital but also positions a trader for long-term success. Itās akin to navigating a ship through stormy seas; without a solid plan, the journey can quickly turn perilous. The importance of employing robust risk management techniques cannot be overstated, as they are essential for mitigating potential losses while maximizing gains.
Understanding Risk-Reward Ratios
Risk-reward ratio is a core principle every trader should grasp. It reflects the relationship between potential profit and potential loss on a trade. For instance, if you're eyeing a stock that you believe might rise significantly, but there's also a chance it could drop, evaluating how much you're willing to lose versus how much you hope to gain is crucial. A common benchmark is a 1:3 risk-reward ratio. This means that for every dollar risked, you aim to generate three dollars in profit.
In practical terms, if your analysis indicates that a particular trade could yield a profit of $300 but you're willing to risk only $100, then thatās a rational risk-reward setup. Additionally, knowing this can guide decision-making on entry and exit points across your trading strategy.
Position Sizing Techniques
Position sizing is about determining how much capital to allocate to a particular trade. This is intertwined with your overall risk tolerance. If you have a solid understanding of your trading account's overall size, you can apply position sizing techniques effectively.
A commonly used method is the Percentage of Account Method, where you decide on a percentage of your total capital to risk on a single trade. Many traders calibrate this to 1-2%. So, if you have a $10,000 account and you decide to risk 1% per trade, you would only engage with $100 at potential loss per trade.
By calculating your position size based on this risk percentage, you can strike a balance between participating enough in the market without risking an entire account through a few missteps. Position sizing acts as a critical buffer against significant financial impacts.
Using Stop-Loss Orders
Stop-loss orders can be viewed as a safety net in day trading, helping mitigate losses without the need for constant monitoring. Implementing stop-loss orders involves setting a predetermined price level at which your position will automatically be sold if the market moves against you. This technique not only protects your capital but also enforces discipline.
Consider setting a stop-loss a few percentage points below where you entered the trade, commonly known as the 'trail.' For instance, if you bought shares at $50, placing a stop-loss at $48 protects against an unforeseen downward turn while still allowing for upward movement.
"While taking risks is part of trading, allowing emotions to guide decisions can lead to losses. Discipline in using stop-loss orders is vital for lasting success."
Implementing these orders doesnāt just stop losses; it also buys you peace of mind, facilitating better focus on your overall day trading strategy rather than on singular trades.
In summary, having a structured approach to risk management is paramount when day trading in volatile markets. Understanding risk-reward ratios, employing effective position sizing techniques, and utilizing stop-loss orders form the bedrock of a strategy that can withstand the ups and downs of day trading. With these methods in mind, traders can navigate the markets with more confidence and poise.
Psychological Aspects of Day Trading
In the realm of day trading, especially amid volatility, the mind can be as daunting a battleground as the market itself. Understanding the psychological aspects of day trading is crucial because a trader's emotional state profoundly impacts decision-making processes. When emotions run high, snap decisions overrule well-laid strategies, often leading to losses instead of profits. It is essential to grasp how emotional discipline, stress management, and cognitive biases play a role in successful trading.
Emotional Discipline and Trading
Emotional discipline serves as the backbone of effective day trading. It is the ability to follow a trading plan without being swayed by fleeting feelings or market noise. Consider a trader who, after a couple of good trades, starts feeling invincible. In such moments, it can be easy to take unnecessary risks, like doubling down on trades or abandoning stop-loss orders. This kind of behavior often leads to a painful fall from grace, realizing too late that emotional highs can cloud judgment. Traders need to reflect on their not-so-smart choices and assess how emotions influenced those decisions.
Dealing with Stress and Anxiety
Trading in volatile markets can be akin to walking a tightrope where one misstep can result in considerable financial harm. Thus, learning to handle stress and anxiety is paramount for traders. A simple, yet effective way to manage these emotions is through mindfulness practices and breathing techniques.
Moreover, establishing a routine that encourages a positive mindset can have a substantial pay-off. For example, a trader might find benefit in keeping a journal, jotting down emotions felt during trades and their outcomes. This helps in identifying patterns in behavior that lead to poor decisions. It also provides an opportunity to reflect on one's feelings and recognize when to step back from the screen. Itās easy to forget, but sometimes taking a breath and stepping away can be the most strategic advice of all.
The Impact of Cognitive Biases
Cognitive biases often creep into trading decisions, whether we like it or not. These mental shortcuts can distort our judgment and lead to irrational decisions. For instance, overconfidence can urge a trader to ignore signals that suggest exiting a position, believing rather naively that their judgment is foolproof.
Another common bias is loss aversionāessentially, the fear of losing something can often lead to a more considerable loss overall. Traders may hold onto losing positions for too long instead of accepting the loss and moving on. The key is acknowledging these biases exist and developing strategies to counteract their effects. Utilizing structured trading plans and sticking to them helps to ground decisions in data rather than emotions. Here is a smart reminder: awareness is half the battle.
In summary, honing psychological aspects of trading is just as important as the technical side. A balanced emotional state, effective stress management, and the recognition of cognitive biases can elevate an ordinary trader to one who can thriveāeven in the wildest of markets. Understanding oneself can often make the difference between success and failure in the facing of unfathomable volatility, ultimately leading to a more strategic trading approach.
Evaluating Market Conditions
Understanding market conditions is like reading the weather before heading out for a picnic. Just as you wouldnāt pack sandwiches if storms are brewing, in day trading, being aware of current market conditions is crucial for making informed decisions. The volatile nature of trading means that conditions can shift from calm to chaotic in the blink of an eye. Therefore, evaluating these conditions helps traders understand potential risks and rewards before diving into the fray.
Market Sentiment and Indicators
Market sentiment can be gauged through various indicators that show how traders are feeling about the market. These indicators encompass several data points, from stock price movements to trader activity levels, and they offer insights into the direction and strength of the market trend.
A common tool for assessing sentiment is the Fear & Greed Index. A high reading indicates greed, typifying a bullish market where prices are racing uphill. Conversely, low readings suggest fear, portraying a bearish outlook where traders might be liquidating positions at alarming rates. Keeping an eye on these signals can help anticipate shifts in market momentum, aiding day traders in making quick decisions when timing is critical.
News Events and Their Impacts
In the fast-paced world of day trading, news can swing prices dramatically faster than a dog can wag its tail. Economic reports, earnings releases, or geopolitical events can result in rapid price fluctuations. Understanding upcoming news events is crucial for day traders since they can shape market sentiment significantly.
For instance, if a company announces unexpectedly high earnings, it could push stock prices up faster than you can say āmarket rally.ā Conversely, disappointing news about a merger falling through can have traders scrambling to offload shares before losses mount. Thus, staying informed about major news events equips traders with the foresight needed to navigate the tumultuous waters of day trading.
Using Economic Indicators
Economic indicators play a vital role in painting the broader picture of market conditions. They provide context that is essential for evaluating potential trends and making educated trading choices.
Interest Rates
Interest rates are not just numbers tossed around by economists; they are key indicators that affect market dynamics directly. When central banks adjust interest rates, it influences not only borrowing costs but also trader sentiment.
Higher interest rates often lead to a decrease in stock prices, as businesses face higher costs of capital and consumers may cut back on spending. Consequently, traders paying attention to interest rate announcements can better time their entry and exit points, improving the odds of profitable trades.
Employment Data
Employment data, including job creations reports, unemployment rates, and wage growth, offer a snapshot of economic health. An upsurge in employment figures generally signals a robust economy, boosting confidence among investors. Conversely, rising unemployment can dampen market spirits.
This data is beneficial as it enables traders to grasp economic momentum and align their trading strategies accordingly. Should employment rates improve, sectors tied to consumer spending might see elevated trading volume, thus presenting lucrative opportunities.
Inflation Reports
Inflation reports are crucial in understanding purchasing power and the broader economy's health. An unexpected spike in inflation can lead to tighter fiscal policies and a market response that may include selling pressure. Keeping an eye on these reports helps traders strategize around potential market shifts.
The unique feature of inflation data is its dual nature; while some sectors can thrive during inflationary times, others may falter under the pressure of rising prices. Thus, day traders must analyze the implications of inflation reports carefully to navigate volatility effectively.
"A well-informed trader is a step ahead of the game." Understanding these economic elements allows traders to modify strategies in response to market shifts, ultimately enhancing their chances of making successful trades.
Post-Trading Analysis and Review
Engaging in day trading is much like embarking on a high-stakes game. The thrill of the trade, marked by the ups and downs of the market, sometimes leads traders to overlook a critical aspect: the post-trading analysis. This part of the trading process is essential, even for seasoned traders. It serves as a key element in honing oneās skills and refining strategies.
Post-trading analysis goes beyond simply assessing which trades were profitable or loss-making. Instead, it involves a comprehensive review of your entire trading performance, identifying patterns, and underscoring areas for improvement. The benefits of this practice are manifold.
- Learning from Mistakes: Itās all too easy to repeat the same mistakes if no effort is given to understand them. A thorough analysis helps pinpoint exactly where things went sideways.
- Strengthening Strategies: Data collected from previous trades can inform and sharpen future trading strategies. By reviewing what worked and what didnāt, traders can adapt and evolve their tactics.
- Boosting Confidence: Regularly engaging in analysis can build tradersā confidence. Understanding the reasoning behind successful trades reassures you about your strategies while offering insight into reducing emotional decision-making.
Thus, adopting a robust post-trading review practice empowers traders, cultivates discipline, and ultimately increases the chances of success in volatile markets.
Reviewing Trading Performance
When it comes to reviewing trading performance, it's vital to dig deeper than the surface numbers. Traders need to look into specifics, such as timing, market conditions, and even emotional states during trades.
Here are several important factors to consider:
- Win-Loss Ratio: Assessing how many trades were successful compared to losses helps provide a clearer picture.
- Average Profit and Loss: Understanding the average amount earned or lost per trade can highlight strengths and weaknesses.
- Trade Duration: Examining how long positions were held can reveal if impatience is leading to premature exits or missing potentials.
Taking the time to record and analyze these aspects meticulously can reveal insights that mere reflection cannot. This data collection is a form of self-awareness, allowing traders to recognize trends or anomalies in their trading behavior.
Identifying Patterns and Trends
In evey trading session, patterns and trends often emerge. By carefully dissecting past trades, traders can uncover insights about market behavior. Recognizing these patterns is fundamental for formulating future strategies.
A few common patterns worth examining include:
- Recurrent Market Moves: Identifying if similar price movements occur under identical market conditions can help predict future actions.
- Psychological Triggers: Sometimes trades are influenced by collective emotions, be it fear or euphoria. Spotting these patterns can alert traders to when they might need to hold back.
- Seasonality Effects: Certain times of the year or specific economic indicators often impact markets. Being able to identify these can be beneficial for planning.
Another important point is to utilize tools that help analyze this data efficiently. Charts, graphs, and even algorithms can provide clarity and insights that written notes might miss.
Continuous Learning and Adjustment
In the world of day trading, stagnation is akin to regression. Being open to continuous learning is paramount. The trading landscape is dynamic, shifting with new technologies and market climates. Therefore, adjustments should be ongoing, even after successful trades.
Traders could consider these practices:
- Regularly Update Knowledge: This could be through reading books, attending webinars, or joining relevant online communities. Places like Reddit and various trading blogs can provide fresh insights and diverse opinions.
- Seek Feedback: Engaging with other tradersāwhether mentors or peersācan give valuable perspectives that might lead to improvements.
- Adapt Strategies: As markets evolve, so should strategies. What worked last year may not hold true in the current market conditions.
